EL PESO MEXICANO TOCA SU MEJOR NIVEL DESDE 2024 Y MANTIENE LA PRESIÓN SOBRE EL DÓLAR
Por Antonio Di Giacomo, Analista Senior de Mercado de XS.com
El peso mexicano mantiene su fortaleza frente al dólar este viernes, extendiendo el movimiento de apreciación observado durante las últimas sesiones y llevando al USD/MXN hasta la zona de 16.88 pesos por dólar, su nivel más bajo desde mayo de 2024. La moneda mexicana continúa beneficiándose principalmente de la debilidad generalizada del dólar, mientras los inversionistas ajustan sus expectativas sobre la trayectoria de la política monetaria estadounidense de cara a los próximos meses.
Las perspectivas para el peso también han mejorado entre los analistas. La Encuesta Citi de Expectativas sitúa ahora el USD/MXN alrededor de 17.68 pesos por dólar al cierre de 2026, frente a los 17.90 previstos anteriormente. Las estimaciones se mantienen relativamente dispersas, entre aproximadamente 17.00 y 19.00 pesos, reflejando que persiste un elevado grado de incertidumbre sobre la evolución de las tasas de interés, la economía estadounidense y los riesgos externos durante el resto del año.
Uno de los principales factores detrás del reciente fortalecimiento del peso ha sido la pérdida de impulso del dólar estadounidense. Durante la semana, la moneda estadounidense acumuló una caída cercana al 1.1% frente a una cesta de las principales divisas, después de que el Departamento del Tesoro anunciara mayores operaciones de recompra de deuda de largo plazo. La medida contribuyó a aliviar parcialmente las tensiones observadas recientemente en el mercado de bonos y redujo parte del soporte que los elevados rendimientos habían proporcionado al dólar.
La atención de los mercados se concentra ahora en las próximas cifras de inflación PCE de Estados Unidos, uno de los indicadores de precios más observados por la Reserva Federal. Un resultado que muestre una moderación de las presiones inflacionarias podría reducir las expectativas de nuevas subidas de tasas y ejercer presión adicional sobre el dólar. Por el contrario, una lectura persistentemente elevada podría fortalecer nuevamente las expectativas de endurecimiento monetario y generar un rebote del USD/MXN.
En México, el panorama económico también ha proporcionado cierto respaldo a la moneda. El PIB avanzó 1.5% trimestral durante el segundo trimestre de 2026 y 2.1% respecto al mismo periodo del año anterior, mostrando una recuperación . considerable de la actividad económica. El crecimiento estuvo apoyado por un mejor desempeño de diferentes sectores, mientras algunas actividades vinculadas al consumo y los servicios también recibieron un impulso durante el periodo relacionado con la celebración del Mundial de Futbol.
A pesar del repunte de la actividad, las expectativas de crecimiento continúan siendo moderadas. La Encuesta Citi mantiene una previsión cercana al 1.2% para 2026 y 1.8% para 2027, lo que sugiere que los inversionistas todavía observan riesgos para la economía mexicana durante los próximos trimestres. Sin embargo, el crecimiento reciente, combinado con una inflación general que se ubicó alrededor del 3.1% anual en julio, ha contribuido a mejorar la percepción sobre los fundamentos macroeconómicos del país.
Otro elemento favorable para el peso es la postura del Banco de México, que mantiene su tasa de referencia en 6.50%. Las últimas señales del banco central apuntan a que las tasas podrían permanecer sin cambios durante un periodo prolongado mientras las autoridades evalúan la evolución de la inflación, especialmente la subyacente y la relacionada con los servicios. Este escenario permite que México conserve un diferencial de tasas atractivo frente a otras economías, un factor que históricamente ha respaldado la demanda por activos denominados en pesos.
El próximo gran catalizador internacional será el Simposio de Jackson Hole, que se celebrará del 27 al 29 de agosto, donde los mercados buscarán nuevas señales sobre la dirección de la política monetaria estadounidense. La atención estará especialmente concentrada en los comentarios de la Reserva Federal y en cualquier indicio sobre la posibilidad de nuevos incrementos de las tasas. Un mensaje menos restrictivo podría prolongar la debilidad del dólar y abrir espacio para que el peso mexicano explore nuevos máximos frente a la moneda estadounidense.
Desde el punto de vista técnico, el USD/MXN conserva una estructura claramente bajista, aunque el fuerte descenso de las últimas jornadas ha llevado algunos indicadores hacia condiciones de sobreventa, aumentando el riesgo de un rebote de corto plazo. La zona de 16.87–16.91 pesos representa el soporte inmediato y una ruptura consistente podría extender las caídas. Por arriba, 16.98 y 17.00 pesos aparecen como las primeras resistencias relevantes, mientras que una recuperación más amplia podría llevar al tipo de cambio nuevamente hacia 17.15–17.25 pesos por dólar.
En conclusión, el peso mexicano llega al cierre de la semana en una posición favorable, respaldado por la debilidad del dólar, el mejor desempeño reciente de la economía mexicana y una política monetaria que continúa ofreciendo soporte a la moneda. Sin embargo, después de alcanzar 16.88 pesos por dólar, las condiciones de sobreventa elevan la posibilidad de movimientos correctivos. Las próximas cifras de inflación PCE y, especialmente, las señales que surjan de Jackson Hole, podrían determinar si el USD/MXN logra romper definitivamente la zona de 16.87 o inicia una recuperación hacia niveles superiores a 17.00 pesos por dólar.
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