Ventas Minoristas se Contraen en comparación anual
Por Análisis de Quásar Elizundia, Estratega de Investigación de Mercados- Pepperstone
“El peso mexicano avanzó frente al dólar el lunes, alcanzando máximos de varios meses, ante la reacción de los inversores por la debilidad del billete verde. Sin embargo, la moneda latina podría enfrentar vientos en contra. En EE.UU., la disminución de los temores sobre la interferencia política en la Reserva Federal y las nuevas esperanzas de una tregua en las tensiones comerciales entre EE.UU. y China podrían impulsar al billete verde.
A nivel nacional, aunque el tipo de interés oficial relativamente alto de Banxico y un diferencial de tipos de interés favorable siguieron atrayendo flujos de entrada, es probable que los datos mixtos enturbien la trayectoria del peso. Las ventas al por menor cayeron un 1,1% interanual en febrero, lo que supone un brusco cambio de tendencia respecto al aumento del 2,7% registrado en enero. Aunque el crecimiento mensual se mantuvo marginalmente positivo, los datos confirmaron una pérdida de impulso en el consumo de los hogares. Esta debilidad coincidió con una rebaja de las previsiones económicas de México por parte del FMI, que ahora espera que el PIB se contraiga un 0,3% en 2025.
El FMI atribuyó la rebaja al impacto de los aranceles, la incertidumbre en torno a la política comercial y el endurecimiento de las condiciones financieras. Aunque la presidenta mexicana Sheinbaum describió su llamada con el presidente Trump como «muy productiva», aún no se ha alcanzado ningún acuerdo formal para levantar los aranceles a las exportaciones mexicanas de acero y automóviles.
De cara al futuro, los mercados seguirán de cerca la publicación de la inflación de mediados de mes del jueves y los datos de actividad económica del viernes. Unas lecturas sólidas podrían validar la reciente fortaleza del peso, mientras que una debilidad continuada podría ejercer presión vendedora sobre la divisa.”
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